Advertising 2010

Global ad spending will grow

WPP's M Group predicts:

Global ad spending forecast for 2010 will be $451 billion, up 3.5 percent compared to 2009.

U.S. ad spending is expected to decline 1.3 percent in 2010 to $145 billion

"The U.S media marketplace clearly bottomed out earlier this year and we expect moderate growth in 2011 consistent with [gross domestic product] improvement," said Rino Scanzoni , chief investment officer at GroupM. "Television and online spending will outpace other media as they lead with return on investment metrics."

As anticipated, countries in the so-called BRIIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) contribute significant growth to the new global forecast, GroupM said.

"China remains the world's biggest contributor to ad growth in 2010, accounting for one in three of all net new ad dollars we expect this year, and one in five as the rest of the world catches up in 2011," said GroupM Futures director Adam Smith.

Adapted from Media Buyer Planner April 6, 2010

ZenithOptimedia said (via Reuters). Global ad spending will grow 4.1% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2010. Developed markets will decline 0.8% this year but will return to growth in 2011 at a rate of 1.8%.

Spending in the U.S. will fall 2%, up from the 12.9% drop the U.S. saw in 2009.

By Medium

—TV is expected to grow by 4.3%
—The internet will grow 12.9%
—Newspapers and magazines will each shrink by about 4%

By Region

—North America is expected to be down 1.5% this year, with the U.S. down 2%
—Western Europe will be up 0.37%
—Asia-Pacific will jump 5.9%
—Central and eastern Europe will rise 5.6%
—Latin America will be up 9.2%
—Africa/MiddleEast/Rest Of World will rise 6.3%

Areas of particular strength include television in the U.K., which is expected to grow 16% this quarter (following decreases every quarter since 2005) and Spanish TV.

Internet to Increase Share

The internet will continue to increase its share, growing from 12.6% of the market in 2009 to 17.1% in 2012. The internet surpassed magazines in terms of market share for the first time in 2009, and will be poised to surpass newspapers in 2010 (via AdAge).

TV’s share of the global market will rise from 39.4% in 2009 to 40.6% in 2012.

Other Trends

Viral advertising on the Internet is increasing. Going viral occurs when one person watches the video clip and then sends it on to friends. These friends then tell other friends. Here are some of the best examples from Wieden & Kennedy's ad campaign for Old Spice.

Spot Radio is up . Spot radio is local radio. Maybe local retailers are realizing that radio is a good buy with low (CPM) cost per thousand and works well to drive foot traffic to a store.

Advertising 2009

Total advertising spending worldwide will be 421 billion in 2009 according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). This is a decline of 12.1% since 2008 due to the recession. PwC estimated that a recovery in worldwide advertising occurs in 2010. By 2013, total advertising spending will reach 467 billion.

worldwide ad spending

PwC estimates that advertising spending in the United States will be $161 billion in 2009 and grow to 173.5 billion in 2013.

Advertising will adapt to the increase in Internet usage by shifting advertisng dollars to the Intenet, mobile and online video ads.

new consumer behavior and Internet advertising

Some advertising spending is hidden. Anthea Stratigos, Outsell Inc., " predicts $65 billion will be siphoned away from traditional advertising channels in 2009 and spent instead on companies' own Web sites and Internet marketing." As Gloria Boone predicted many years ago, websites are ads.

Here is the latest data from TNS on U.S. ad spending in the first quarter of 2009.

ad spending Q1 2009

The Newspaper, Radio and Magazine sectors are facing the greatest downturn in advertising revenue. Internet advertising remains a bright spot for advertising dollars.

Procter & Gamble continues to be the top company for ad spending, followed by two telecom comanies - Verizon and AT&T who are locked in a battle in the cable market and wireless phones.

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